Sam Howell will not be the newest quarterback for the Denver Broncos.
The former starter for Washington, who guided the Commanders to a 35-33 victory over the Broncos in Week 2, is
currently en route to Seattle following the Seahawks’ draft-pick trade for the third-year quarterback.
With his talent as a third-year quarterback and his ability to be a bridge to a draft pick next month, Sam Howell
would have made some sense for the Broncos.
However, a transaction akin to the one the Seahawks completed would have been challenging for the Broncos due to
their lack of early-round selection money.
Here’s how the transaction worked out according to three different draft-pick value models that provide a point value
to each choice:
Model Jimmy Johnson
Points to Seattle: 109.8
Washington: 230.6 points
Difference: Late in Round 3, 120.8 points, or the 95th overall choice,
MODEL RICH HILL
42 points to Seattle
70 points to Washington
Difference: Early in Round 4, 28 points, or the No. 111 choice,
Model: Fitzgerald-Spiegelberger
Points: 1,072 to Seattle
Points 1,246 to Washington
Difference: 174 points, not even equal to the draft’s last pick’s value
Thus, considering the Fitzgerald-Spielberger model as an anomaly, Howell’s trade value was about the same as a late
third- or early fourth-round selection. The Broncos had so few early picks (only two in the first 120 picks) that
Denver was unable to match Seattle’s offer without also giving up their third-round pick, which was sitting at No. 76
overall.
Moreover, Washington received a higher return on its investment in Sam Howell due to that value. Two years ago,
the Commanders selected him with the first choice of the fifth round. In two of the models, they received back the
equivalent of a pick that is greater than the value.
And that serves as another illustration of how choosing a quarterback, even if he or she is not ultimately selected, can
pay off.
